{"id":777,"date":"2025-11-26T14:23:46","date_gmt":"2025-11-26T06:23:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.itsmetoo.com\/?p=777"},"modified":"2025-11-26T14:23:46","modified_gmt":"2025-11-26T06:23:46","slug":"burry-vs-the-tech-titans-why-the-ai-boom-isnt-as-invincible-as-it-seems","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.itsmetoo.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/26\/burry-vs-the-tech-titans-why-the-ai-boom-isnt-as-invincible-as-it-seems\/","title":{"rendered":"Burry vs. the Tech Titans: Why the AI Boom Isn\u2019t as Invincible as It Seems"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While many investors argue that\u00a0<strong>tech giants\u2019 strong profitability proves there\u2019s no AI bubble<\/strong>, legendary investor\u00a0<strong>Michael Burry<\/strong>\u200b has fired back with a sharp rebuttal\u2014drawing eerie parallels to the\u00a0<strong>1999 dot-com bubble<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Burry\u2019s Counterargument: History Rhymes<\/strong>\u200b<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Burry points out that&nbsp;<strong>the 1999 Nasdaq peak wasn\u2019t driven by money-losing startups<\/strong>, but by&nbsp;<strong>high-margin giants<\/strong>\u2014what he calls the&nbsp;<em>&#8220;four horsemen&#8221;<\/em>:&nbsp;<strong>Microsoft, Intel, Dell, and Cisco<\/strong>.<em>&#8220;Contrary to popular belief, it wasn\u2019t unprofitable internet companies fueling the boom\u20141999\u2019s soaring Nasdaq was propelled into the new millennium by then-high-margin blue chips&#8230;&#8221;<\/em>Today, he argues, the&nbsp;<strong>AI craze is similarly dominated by &#8220;the five public horsemen&#8221;<\/strong>\u2014<strong>Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, and Oracle<\/strong>\u2014plus startups like&nbsp;<strong>OpenAI<\/strong>. These companies plan to&nbsp;<strong>spend nearly $3 trillion on AI infrastructure over the next three years<\/strong>.At the center of it all?&nbsp;<strong>Nvidia<\/strong>, which Burry compares to&nbsp;<strong>Cisco<\/strong>\u2014the dot-com era\u2019s infrastructure provider whose stock&nbsp;<strong>plunged over 75% after the bubble burst<\/strong>.<em>&#8220;Once again, there\u2019s a Cisco at the heart of it all\u2014one providing the \u2018picks and shovels\u2019 with grand visions. Its name is NVIDIA.&#8221;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Real Bubble: Supply-Side Gluttony<\/strong>\u200b<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In a&nbsp;<strong>November 11 teaser<\/strong>, Burry accused tech firms of&nbsp;<strong>artificially inflating profits by extending depreciation schedules<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u2022<strong>AI chips have a real lifespan of 2-3 years<\/strong>, but some companies depreciate them over\u00a0<strong>6 years<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u2022He estimates this could lead to\u00a0<strong>$176 billion in overstated profits by 2028<\/strong>\u2014with\u00a0<strong>Oracle\u2019s earnings potentially inflated by 26.9%<\/strong>\u200b and\u00a0<strong>Meta\u2019s by 20.8%<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In his latest piece,&nbsp;<strong>&#8220;The Primary Signs of a Bubble: Supply-Side Gluttony,&#8221;<\/strong>\u200b Burry deepens this critique, framing the issue as&nbsp;<strong>&#8220;catastrophically overbuilt supply and nowhere near enough demand.&#8221;<\/strong>\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u2022<strong>Tech giants are engaged in an unsustainable CapEx binge<\/strong>, pouring billions into\u00a0<strong>data centers and chips<\/strong>\u2014but\u00a0<strong>actual downstream revenue can\u2019t justify the costs<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u2022He warns investors not to fall for the\u00a0<em>&#8220;this time is different&#8221;<\/em>fallacy:<em>&#8220;No matter how many try to prove it, this time isn\u2019t different.&#8221;<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Nvidia Strikes Back: &#8220;No Systemic Fraud&#8221;<\/strong>\u200b<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Facing Burry\u2019s accusations\u2014and broader AI bubble fears\u2014<strong>Nvidia fought back aggressively<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u2022<strong>Memo to analysts<\/strong>\u200b denied claims of\u00a0<strong>610<em>bi<\/em><em>ll<\/em><em>i<\/em><em>o<\/em><em>nin<\/em><em>c<\/em><em>i<\/em><em>rc<\/em><em>u<\/em><em>l<\/em><em>a<\/em><em>r<\/em><em>f<\/em><em>inan<\/em><em>c<\/em><em>in<\/em><em>g<\/em>\u2217\u2217,<em>c<\/em><em>l<\/em><em>a<\/em><em>r<\/em><em>i<\/em><em>f<\/em><em>y<\/em><em>in<\/em><em>g<\/em><em>t<\/em><em>ha<\/em><em>t<\/em><em>i<\/em><em>t<\/em><em>s<\/em>\u2217\u2217<em>Q<\/em>3<em>s<\/em><em>t<\/em><em>r<\/em><em>a<\/em><em>t<\/em><em>e<\/em><em>g<\/em><em>i<\/em><em>c<\/em><em>in<\/em><em>v<\/em><em>es<\/em><em>t<\/em><em>m<\/em><em>e<\/em><em>n<\/em><em>t<\/em><em>s<\/em><em>w<\/em><em>ere<\/em><em>j<\/em><em>u<\/em><em>s<\/em><em>t<\/em>3.7B (total YTD: ~$4.7B)<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u2022<strong>Depreciation &amp; margins?<\/strong>\u200b Nvidia blamed higher warranty costs (due to Blackwell\u2019s complexity) and insisted its accounting is proper.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u2022<strong>No SEC investigation<\/strong>, and\u00a0<strong>crypto volatility doesn\u2019t affect its books<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Some analysts back Nvidia:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u2022<strong>Raymond James\u2019 Simon Leopold<\/strong>\u200b called the\u00a0<em>&#8220;systemic fraud&#8221;<\/em>narrative\u00a0<em>&#8220;inconsistent with fundamentals.&#8221;<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>CEO Jensen Huang<\/strong>\u200b dismissed bubble talk:<em>&#8220;There\u2019s a lot of discussion about an AI bubble&#8230; but from our perspective, we see something very different.&#8221;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Burry\u2019s New Business Model: &#8220;Knowledge Paywall&#8221;<\/strong>\u200b<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Burry published this scathing analysis in his&nbsp;<strong>new paid newsletter,&nbsp;<em>Cassandra Unchained<\/em><\/strong>(<strong>$379\/year<\/strong>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u2022The first article,\u00a0<em>&#8220;The Primary Signs of a Bubble: Supply-Side Gluttony,&#8221;<\/em>marks his return to\u00a0<strong>full-time commentary<\/strong>\u200b after shuttering his fund.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u2022In the\u00a0<em>&#8220;About&#8221;<\/em>section, he explained his shift:<em>&#8220;Managing client money came with regulatory constraints that \u2018effectively muzzled\u2019 my voice. Those limits are gone.&#8221;<\/em><em>&#8220;Cassandra is unchained.&#8221;<\/em>(Referring to the Greek myth of the prophet ignored.)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Fun fact:<\/strong>\u200b After media falsely reported he had&nbsp;<strong>912<em>M<\/em><em>s<\/em><em>h<\/em><em>or<\/em><em>t<\/em><em>in<\/em><em>g<\/em><em>N<\/em><em>v<\/em><em>i<\/em><em>d<\/em><em>ia<\/em>\/<em>P<\/em><em>a<\/em><em>l<\/em><em>an<\/em><em>t<\/em><em>i<\/em><em>r<\/em>\u2217\u2217(<em>a<\/em><em>c<\/em><em>t<\/em><em>u<\/em><em>a<\/em><em>l<\/em><em>s<\/em><em>t<\/em><em>ak<\/em><em>e<\/em>:\u2217\u22179.2M<\/strong>), Burry&nbsp;<strong>quietly closed Scion Asset Management<\/strong>\u200b and teased a&nbsp;<strong>November 25 launch<\/strong>\u200b of his new project.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Unpopular Prophet?<\/strong>\u200b<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Burry ends his piece with a\u00a0<strong>Charlie Munger quote<\/strong>:<em>&#8220;If you go around popping a lot of balloons, you are not going to be the most popular fellow in the room.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u200b While many investors argue t&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":778,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,6],"tags":[24,209,39],"class_list":["post-777","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-companies","category-people","tag-ai","tag-bubble","tag-nvidia"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.itsmetoo.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/777","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.itsmetoo.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.itsmetoo.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.itsmetoo.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.itsmetoo.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=777"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.itsmetoo.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/777\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":779,"href":"https:\/\/www.itsmetoo.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/777\/revisions\/779"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.itsmetoo.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/778"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.itsmetoo.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=777"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.itsmetoo.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=777"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.itsmetoo.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=777"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}